Column by Richard Randall
Businesses are witnessing a lot of economic and political chaos lately. Between on-again, off-again tariffs and government shutdowns, it’s getting harder all the time to get a clear view of where the economy is headed. Add to that a growing feeling of unease about the politization of economic information and it’s no surprise if you’re anxious about hiring, borrowing, investing and setting prices. It can feel like you’re flying blind.
Fortunately, there are several sources of economic data, forecasts and analysis that are both readily available and free. You just have to know where to look.
One source I’ve used frequently is the Federal Reserve. There are 12 Federal Reserve regions and banks in major cities such as New York, Philadelphia and Chicago. Many of the banks provide reports on economic strength in their regions and nationwide. Many of these reports are based on surveys. They aren’t affected by government shutdowns and are very resistant to being politicized.
When I was leading a family-owned manufacturer in Reading, I regularly visited the website of the Philadelphia Fed, which provides a great example of the kind of information available. The Philadelphia Fed produces three excellent reports:
- The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey and Non-Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey capture what business leaders in the region are actually experiencing. Participants report changes in overall activity, employment, hours worked, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, and prices paid and received. The data provides an early read on turning points in the economy.
- The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the nation’s oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts. It aggregates projections from a panel of economists on GDP, unemployment and inflation, including both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures. For leaders looking beyond headlines, this offers a disciplined view of consensus expectations.
Another indispensable source is the Institute of Supply Management. Like the Federal Reserve Business Outlook surveys, its Purchasing Managers Index Reports (PMI) reflect what purchasing managers see in their businesses when surveyed for statistics such as new orders, production, prices, employment and lead times. There are two reports, one for manufacturing and one for services.
Survey participants are asked if each statistic changed positively, negatively or not at all compared to the prior month. The responses on each metric are reported, and they are aggregated into an overall index which reflects whether business activity is expanding or contracting. For example, the Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 was 52.6 percent up 4.7 percentage points from the prior month and indicating a reversal in the overall manufacturing economy from contraction to expansion.
A third organization whose reports I’ve found helpful is Wells Fargo Bank. Its monthly U.S. Economic Outlook provides forecasts on a variety of useful metrics including interest rates, GDP, inflation, employment and investment. As with the other reports in this column, the Wells Fargo reports are not affected by government shutdowns and are very resistant to any kind of politization.
The common thread across these sources is that they rely heavily on real-time survey data and professional forecasting panels, not bureaucratic reporting cycles. That makes them resilient in periods of political turbulence.
Richard Randall is founder and president of management consulting firm New Level Advisors in Springettsbury Township, York County. Email him at [email protected].
Executive Insights is a recurring feature from biznewsPA that provides local business executives and leaders a platform for sharing advice and perspective with the business community of Central Pennsylvania. If you are interested in contributing an executive insight, email [email protected].
